Senegal’s home gasoline reserves will be mainly used to produce electricity. Authorities expect that home fuel infrastructure projects will come online between 2025 and 2026, offered there is no delay. The monetization of those vital energy resources is at the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide technology group Wärtsilä carried out in-depth studies that analyse the economic impression of the various gas-to-power strategies available to Senegal. Two very totally different applied sciences are competing to fulfill the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very important system price differences between the 2 primary gas-to-power applied sciences the nation is at present contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are in reality much better suited than mixed cycle gas generators to harness energy from Senegal’s new gasoline assets cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total price variations between the two applied sciences may attain as a lot as 480 million USD till 2035 relying on eventualities.
Two competing and really completely different technologies
The state-of-the-art power combine models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised energy eventualities to establish the cost optimum approach to deliver new era capacity for a specific nation, exhibits that ICE and CCGT applied sciences present significant price differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally proven and reliable, they’re very completely different in phrases of the profiles by which they’ll operate. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it could function at 90% load factor always. On the opposite hand, flexible ICE expertise can operate effectively in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to another generation applied sciences that will make up the country’s power combine.
In particular our study reveals that when working in an electrical energy network of limited size similar to Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, counting on CCGTs to considerably expand the network capacity would be extremely expensive in all potential situations.
Cost differences between the technologies are explained by a variety of components. First of all, sizzling climates negatively impact the output of fuel turbines greater than it does that of fuel engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated access to low cost home gas, the working costs turn out to be less impactful than the funding prices. In digital pressure gauge ราคา , because low gas prices decrease working prices, it’s financially sound for the nation to rely on ICE energy crops, which are cheaper to construct.
Technology modularity additionally performs a key position. Senegal is anticipated to require an additional 60-80 MW of era capacity each year to have the power to meet the growing demand. This is way decrease than the capability of typical CCGTs vegetation which averages 300-400 MW that should be built in one go, resulting in pointless expenditure. Engine power vegetation, on the other hand, are modular, which implies they are often built exactly as and when the nation wants them, and additional prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are important. The model exhibits that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT plants at the expense of ICE-gas, it will result in as a lot as 240 million dollars of extra cost for the system by 2035. The price distinction between the applied sciences can even enhance to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal also chooses to construct new renewable energy capacity within the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gas infrastructure delays
The growth of fuel infrastructure is a fancy and prolonged endeavour. Program delays are not uncommon, causing gas provide disruptions that may have an enormous monetary influence on the operation of CCGT vegetation.
Nigeria knows something about that. Only last yr, vital fuel provide issues have brought on shutdowns at a number of the country’s largest gasoline turbine energy crops. Because Gas turbines function on a steady combustion process, they require a constant provide of gas and a secure dispatched load to generate constant power output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns happen, putting a great strain on the general system. ICE-Gas plants then again, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and increase system flexibility. Because of their flexible operating profile, they were capable of keep a a lot higher level of availability
The research took a deep dive to analyse the monetary impression of two years delay within the gas infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to speculate into gasoline engines, the worth of fuel delay would be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in extra cost.
Whichever way you have a look at it, new ICE-Gas technology capacity will minimize the whole cost of electricity in Senegal in all potential scenarios. If Senegal is to satisfy electricity demand development in a cost-optimal way, at least 300 MW of new ICE-Gas capability might be required by 2026.