Senegal’s home gas reserves shall be primarily used to provide electrical energy. Authorities expect that domestic gasoline infrastructure tasks will come online between 2025 and 2026, offered there is no delay. The monetization of those significant power assets is at the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global expertise group Wärtsilä carried out in-depth research that analyse the economic influence of the various gas-to-power strategies out there to Senegal. Two very totally different technologies are competing to meet the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very vital system price differences between the 2 major gas-to-power technologies the nation is at present contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gasoline engines are actually significantly better suited than combined cycle gas turbines to harness power from Senegal’s new fuel sources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total cost variations between the two applied sciences might attain as a lot as 480 million USD till 2035 depending on scenarios.
Two competing and very totally different technologies
The state-of-the-art energy mix models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised vitality situations to identify the cost optimal way to ship new generation capacity for a particular nation, reveals that ICE and CCGT technologies current significant value differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program operating to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally proven and reliable, they’re very totally different when it comes to the profiles by which they can function. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it could perform at 90% load issue always. On the opposite hand, flexible ICE expertise can function effectively in all operating profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to some other era technologies that will make up the country’s energy mix.
In explicit our study reveals that when working in an electrical energy network of restricted size corresponding to Senegal’s 1GW national grid, counting on CCGTs to significantly expand the network capacity can be extremely costly in all attainable eventualities.
Cost differences between the technologies are defined by a selection of components. First of all, scorching climates negatively influence the output of fuel generators more than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, thanks to Senegal’s anticipated access to low-cost home gas, the operating prices become much less impactful than the funding costs. In other phrases, as a result of low fuel costs lower operating prices, it is financially sound for the nation to depend on ICE power vegetation, which are less expensive to construct.
Technology modularity also plays a key function. Senegal is expected to require an additional 60-80 MW of generation capacity annually to find a way to meet the growing demand. This is far decrease than the capacity of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that must be inbuilt one go, leading to pointless expenditure. Engine energy plants, on the opposite hand, are modular, which implies they are often built exactly as and when the country wants them, and additional extended when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The mannequin shows that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it will result in as much as 240 million dollars of additional value for the system by 2035. The price distinction between the applied sciences can even improve to 350 million USD in favor of ICE expertise if Senegal also chooses to build new renewable power capability inside the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gas infrastructure delays
The improvement of gasoline infrastructure is a posh and prolonged endeavour. Program delays aren’t uncommon, inflicting fuel provide disruptions that may have a huge financial impression on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria is aware of one thing about that. Only เกจวัดแก๊สlpg , vital gas provide points have triggered shutdowns at a number of the country’s largest gasoline turbine power plants. Because Gas turbines function on a continuous combustion process, they require a constant provide of gas and a stable dispatched load to generate consistent energy output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns occur, placing an excellent pressure on the overall system. ICE-Gas crops then again, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and improve system flexibility. Because of their flexible operating profile, they have been capable of keep a much larger stage of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the financial influence of 2 years delay within the gasoline infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to invest into fuel engines, the value of gasoline delay can be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in extra cost.
Whichever way you take a look at it, new ICE-Gas era capability will minimize the total cost of electricity in Senegal in all potential situations. If Senegal is to meet electricity demand growth in a cost-optimal means, no less than 300 MW of new ICE-Gas capability will be required by 2026.